Synthetic Controls

Brazil Results

combine estimates

	Stacking Estimate (95% CI)	SC Estimate (95% CI)	Time trend Estimate (95% CI)	Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI)	STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
0	0.83 (0.75, 0.98)	0.83 (0.75, 0.98)	0.85 (0.73, 0.99)	0.96 (0.84, 1.1)	0.92 (0.78, 1.08)
1	0.77 (0.72, 0.81)	0.77 (0.72, 0.81)	0.73 (0.64, 0.84)	0.86 (0.77, 0.95)	0.84 (0.75, 0.94)
2	0.77 (0.73, 0.82)	0.77 (0.73, 0.82)	0.75 (0.66, 0.86)	0.81 (0.74, 0.9)	0.78 (0.72, 0.85)
3	0.81 (0.72, 0.91)	0.76 (0.71, 0.82)	0.82 (0.73, 0.91)	0.82 (0.75, 0.9)	0.82 (0.75, 0.91)
4	0.78 (0.68, 0.89)	0.78 (0.71, 0.87)	0.79 (0.68, 0.9)	0.77 (0.67, 0.88)	0.76 (0.67, 0.87)
5	0.82 (0.72, 0.95)	0.81 (0.72, 0.89)	0.85 (0.72, 0.97)	0.88 (0.76, 1.02)	0.81 (0.68, 0.98)
6	1.04 (0.78, 1.12)	1.06 (0.99, 1.12)	0.94 (0.85, 1.04)	0.98 (0.86, 1.09)	0.83 (0.75, 0.92)
7	0.89 (0.8, 1.01)	0.88 (0.8, 1)	0.96 (0.87, 1.05)	1.03 (0.95, 1.14)	0.96 (0.88, 1.05)
8	1 (0.91, 1.09)	1 (0.89, 1.13)	0.99 (0.91, 1.09)	1.05 (0.96, 1.2)	1 (0.91, 1.09)
9	0.75 (0.69, 0.79)	0.75 (0.71, 0.79)	0.73 (0.64, 0.83)	0.88 (0.79, 0.98)	0.85 (0.76, 0.94)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights

Weights for each of the models from cross validation

groups	Synthetic Controls	Time trend	Time trend (no offset)	STL+PCA
0	0.898	0.099	0.003	0.000
1	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
2	0.957	0.043	0.000	0.000
3	0.252	0.748	0.000	0.000
4	0.088	0.305	0.607	0.000
5	0.841	0.000	0.159	0.000
6	0.708	0.000	0.000	0.292
7	0.918	0.051	0.000	0.031
8	0.105	0.000	0.003	0.892
9	0.855	0.145	0.000	0.000

Inclusion Probabilities

Group	Greatest Inclusion Variable	Greatest Inclusion Probability	Second Greatest Inclusion Variable	Second Greatest Inclusion Probability	Third Greatest Inclusion Variable	Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
0	E00_99	1.0000000	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	M00_99	0.4965127
1	E40_46	1.0000000	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	K00_99	0.2423294
2	E40_46	1.0000000	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	N39	0.4685309
3	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	P00_99	0.7692098	N39	0.2492494
4	pandemic	1.0000000	E00_99	0.8245764	Z00_99	0.7888644
5	pandemic	1.0000000	A41	0.9999998	I00_99	0.9999937
6	pandemic	1.0000000	E00_99	1.0000000	Q00_99	0.0677251
7	I00_99	0.6861144	A41	0.6821550	L00_99	0.3309309
8	A41	0.4353729	I60_64	0.3683571	K80	0.3557125
9	E40_46	1.0000000	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	pandemic	0.0316069

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

	Estimate (95% CI)	Top Control 1	Inclusion Probability of Control 1	Control 1 Estimate (95% CI)	Top Control 2	Inclusion Probability of Control 2	Control 2 Estimate (95% CI)	Top Control 3	Inclusion Probability of Control 3	Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
0	0.83 (0.75, 0.98)	cJ20_J22	1	0.87 (0.72, 1.1)	E00_99	1	0.89 (0.73, 1.09)	M00_99	0.5	0.89 (0.73, 1.12)
1	0.77 (0.72, 0.81)	cJ20_J22	1	0.75 (0.71, 0.83)	E40_46	1	0.75 (0.69, 0.87)	K00_99	0.24	0.76 (0.69, 0.84)
2	0.77 (0.73, 0.82)	cJ20_J22	1	0.73 (0.67, 0.94)	E40_46	1	0.76 (0.67, 0.93)	N39	0.47	0.76 (0.67, 0.9)
3	0.76 (0.71, 0.82)	cJ20_J22	1	0.79 (0.73, 0.87)	P00_99	0.77	0.78 (0.72, 0.95)	N39	0.25	0.78 (0.71, 0.94)
4	0.78 (0.71, 0.87)	pandemic	1	0.73 (0.59, 0.82)	E00_99	0.82	0.74 (0.6, 0.9)	Z00_99	0.79	0.73 (0.62, 0.81)
5	0.81 (0.72, 0.89)	pandemic	1	0.64 (0.54, 0.8)	A41	1	0.78 (0.63, 0.89)	I00_99	1	0.77 (0.62, 0.9)
6	1.06 (0.99, 1.12)	pandemic	1	0.88 (0.69, 1.02)	E00_99	1	0.82 (0.71, 0.93)	Q00_99	0.07	0.81 (0.68, 0.92)
7	0.88 (0.8, 1)	I00_99	0.69	1.07 (0.91, 1.24)	A41	0.68	1.03 (0.89, 1.15)	L00_99	0.33	1.12 (0.94, 1.24)
8	1 (0.89, 1.13)	A41	0.44	1.05 (0.92, 1.2)	I60_64	0.37	1.04 (0.89, 1.18)	K80	0.36	1.04 (0.92, 1.18)
9	0.75 (0.71, 0.79)	cJ20_J22	1	0.82 (0.7, 0.95)	E40_46	1	0.86 (0.76, 0.97)	pandemic	0.03	0.75 (0.67, 0.89)

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