Brazil Results

combine estimates

Stacking Estimate (95% CI) SC Estimate (95% CI) Time trend Estimate (95% CI) Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
0 0.83 (0.75, 0.98) 0.83 (0.75, 0.98) 0.85 (0.73, 0.99) 0.96 (0.84, 1.1) 0.92 (0.78, 1.08)
1 0.77 (0.72, 0.81) 0.77 (0.72, 0.81) 0.73 (0.64, 0.84) 0.86 (0.77, 0.95) 0.84 (0.75, 0.94)
2 0.77 (0.73, 0.82) 0.77 (0.73, 0.82) 0.75 (0.66, 0.86) 0.81 (0.74, 0.9) 0.78 (0.72, 0.85)
3 0.81 (0.72, 0.91) 0.76 (0.71, 0.82) 0.82 (0.73, 0.91) 0.82 (0.75, 0.9) 0.82 (0.75, 0.91)
4 0.78 (0.68, 0.89) 0.78 (0.71, 0.87) 0.79 (0.68, 0.9) 0.77 (0.67, 0.88) 0.76 (0.67, 0.87)
5 0.82 (0.72, 0.95) 0.81 (0.72, 0.89) 0.85 (0.72, 0.97) 0.88 (0.76, 1.02) 0.81 (0.68, 0.98)
6 1.04 (0.78, 1.12) 1.06 (0.99, 1.12) 0.94 (0.85, 1.04) 0.98 (0.86, 1.09) 0.83 (0.75, 0.92)
7 0.89 (0.8, 1.01) 0.88 (0.8, 1) 0.96 (0.87, 1.05) 1.03 (0.95, 1.14) 0.96 (0.88, 1.05)
8 1 (0.91, 1.09) 1 (0.89, 1.13) 0.99 (0.91, 1.09) 1.05 (0.96, 1.2) 1 (0.91, 1.09)
9 0.75 (0.69, 0.79) 0.75 (0.71, 0.79) 0.73 (0.64, 0.83) 0.88 (0.79, 0.98) 0.85 (0.76, 0.94)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights

Weights for each of the models from cross validation

groups Synthetic Controls Time trend Time trend (no offset) STL+PCA
0 0.898 0.099 0.003 0.000
1 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2 0.957 0.043 0.000 0.000
3 0.252 0.748 0.000 0.000
4 0.088 0.305 0.607 0.000
5 0.841 0.000 0.159 0.000
6 0.708 0.000 0.000 0.292
7 0.918 0.051 0.000 0.031
8 0.105 0.000 0.003 0.892
9 0.855 0.145 0.000 0.000

Inclusion Probabilities

Group Greatest Inclusion Variable Greatest Inclusion Probability Second Greatest Inclusion Variable Second Greatest Inclusion Probability Third Greatest Inclusion Variable Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
0 E00_99 1.0000000 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 M00_99 0.4965127
1 E40_46 1.0000000 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 K00_99 0.2423294
2 E40_46 1.0000000 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 N39 0.4685309
3 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.7692098 N39 0.2492494
4 pandemic 1.0000000 E00_99 0.8245764 Z00_99 0.7888644
5 pandemic 1.0000000 A41 0.9999998 I00_99 0.9999937
6 pandemic 1.0000000 E00_99 1.0000000 Q00_99 0.0677251
7 I00_99 0.6861144 A41 0.6821550 L00_99 0.3309309
8 A41 0.4353729 I60_64 0.3683571 K80 0.3557125
9 E40_46 1.0000000 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 pandemic 0.0316069

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 1 Inclusion Probability of Control 1 Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 2 Inclusion Probability of Control 2 Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 3 Inclusion Probability of Control 3 Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
0 0.83 (0.75, 0.98) cJ20_J22 1 0.87 (0.72, 1.1) E00_99 1 0.89 (0.73, 1.09) M00_99 0.5 0.89 (0.73, 1.12)
1 0.77 (0.72, 0.81) cJ20_J22 1 0.75 (0.71, 0.83) E40_46 1 0.75 (0.69, 0.87) K00_99 0.24 0.76 (0.69, 0.84)
2 0.77 (0.73, 0.82) cJ20_J22 1 0.73 (0.67, 0.94) E40_46 1 0.76 (0.67, 0.93) N39 0.47 0.76 (0.67, 0.9)
3 0.76 (0.71, 0.82) cJ20_J22 1 0.79 (0.73, 0.87) P00_99 0.77 0.78 (0.72, 0.95) N39 0.25 0.78 (0.71, 0.94)
4 0.78 (0.71, 0.87) pandemic 1 0.73 (0.59, 0.82) E00_99 0.82 0.74 (0.6, 0.9) Z00_99 0.79 0.73 (0.62, 0.81)
5 0.81 (0.72, 0.89) pandemic 1 0.64 (0.54, 0.8) A41 1 0.78 (0.63, 0.89) I00_99 1 0.77 (0.62, 0.9)
6 1.06 (0.99, 1.12) pandemic 1 0.88 (0.69, 1.02) E00_99 1 0.82 (0.71, 0.93) Q00_99 0.07 0.81 (0.68, 0.92)
7 0.88 (0.8, 1) I00_99 0.69 1.07 (0.91, 1.24) A41 0.68 1.03 (0.89, 1.15) L00_99 0.33 1.12 (0.94, 1.24)
8 1 (0.89, 1.13) A41 0.44 1.05 (0.92, 1.2) I60_64 0.37 1.04 (0.89, 1.18) K80 0.36 1.04 (0.92, 1.18)
9 0.75 (0.71, 0.79) cJ20_J22 1 0.82 (0.7, 0.95) E40_46 1 0.86 (0.76, 0.97) pandemic 0.03 0.75 (0.67, 0.89)

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